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0:00
I'm Kate Nisher, I'm a professor of urban planning.
0:01
Let's answer some questions from the internet.
0:09
This is housing support at Ethan 2 says, "Why does rent have to go up every year but my salary doesn't?" sad face.
0:15
That's really disappointing.
0:17
So if we look back to 1995 to now, the percentage increase is almost 100% increase in the amount of rent people are paying, but income doesn't increase as quickly.
0:28
Of course, rent increase with inflation, but this is more than that.
0:32
A lot of the low-cost units are disappearing from the market because they have transitioned to luxury housing.
0:39
Landlords are charging more and more based on upgrades they've made, or they've transitioned to for-sale homes.
0:48
There's also been an increase in what's called institutional investment.
0:48
These are corporations buying up homes and also multi-family residential buildings to rent them out to make a profit.
0:48
In 2001, only about 18% of rent units were owned by corporations.
0:48
Today that's about 50%.
0:48
So it's really likely that you're paying your rent to a corporate landlord.
0:48
At Gareth McDade asks, "Is there a housing emergency or not?"
0:48
We are in a housing emergency and we're also in a housing crisis.
0:48
A housing emergency is actually a legal term.
1:16
If a vacancy drops below 5%, the municipality can declare a state of emergency, and that allows them to access all these different kinds of policies.
1:26
Rent stabilization, rent control are examples of this.
1:28
A healthy housing market has above 5% vacancy rate.
1:30
The vacancy rate in New York City is actually 1.4% right now.
1:35
Anything that charges less than $2,400 a month in rent, the vacancy rate is actually 0.4 to 0.8, a very low vacancy rate.
1:43
I love B43 asks, "Why are houses so expensive?"
1:47
Houses are really expensive right now.
1:51
Number one, it's a supply and demand issue.
1:53
The US is short about 4 million homes to meet the current demand, and a scarcity of any commodity means the price goes up, up, up.
2:02
In fact, 2023 was the least affordable year ever to buy houses in the United States.
2:07
Interest rates are increasing, or it's very expensive to invest in development projects, and it also encourages developers to develop luxury housing rather than more affordable housing.
2:18
Because this wealthy market exists, developers are building to target that market.
2:22
They're building very expensive luxury homes.
2:24
That means that other housing isn't getting built, so everyone's prices increase as a result of more luxury development.
2:31
At True NYJET GC asks, "Why are cities not using these abandoned towers to create affordable or homeless housing?"
2:38
What the is wrong with this country?
2:40
Depending on the age and condition of the building, sometimes it can actually be more economically viable to demolish the building and build something new.
2:49
Older office buildings or pre-war office buildings, ventilation required that windows be provided for every office space, so it's easier to convert these older office buildings to residential because they're already laid out like our residential buildings.
3:04
Newer buildings are very difficult to convert to residential, and it's very expensive to do this.
3:09
If you want to convert this into a residential building, you have to replace all of these windows.
3:15
You can't have a bedroom without an opening window.
3:17
You would have to puncture a hole in the middle of the building to provide window access, reconfigure all of the plumbing in the building to hook up to all of the individual bathrooms and kitchens, change the electricity supply, change the HVAC systems.
3:31
So this requires just completely transforming the inside guts of these buildings.
3:36
In New York City, there's about 94 million square feet of unused office space.
3:44
That's equivalent to all of the office space in Dallas and Houston combined.
3:44
It's a huge amount of vacant spaces right now, and we have to figure out what to do with it.
3:44
At High For Housing says, "What housing technologies are here to stay?"
3:44
Modular.
3:44
Modular housing can also be referred to as prefab.
3:44
Different components will manufactured in different manufacturing sites.
3:44
They're all brought back to the site and assembled, kind of like a jigsaw puzzle.
4:06
The manufacturing can take place where labor is cheaper, and it also doesn't disturb the neighborhood as much.
4:10
Another newish building technology that I'm really excited about is something called mass timber, where wood is laminated together with a special glue to create really large beams of wood that are very strong.
4:23
They're also fire resistant.
4:23
They have a lower carbon footprint as well.
4:28
Mass timber is now becoming stronger and so it can be used to build higher and higher buildings.
4:32
Previous to a couple of years ago, the highest building you could build in the United States out of timber with six stories, now you can build 18 stories, so we're going to start seeing high rises built entirely of wood.
4:42
It's pretty amazing.
4:45
At ReadLight says, "It will be interesting to see how the value of oceanfront property changes as sea levels continue to rise."
4:51
This will be really interesting.
4:51
So far though, it really hasn't affected home prices.
4:51
At OHawkings asks, "What is redlining?"
4:51
It's kind of come to signify any sort of racial discrimination in housing, but actually there's a really specific history around redlining.
4:51
This is a redlining map from Cleveland in the 1930s.
4:51
The United States federal government decided to start a new mortgage program to allow home buyers to access federally backed mortgages.
4:51
The government created these maps to determine where their investments would be safe.
4:51
Green areas where you see down here is where the federal government felt that their money would be well used.
4:51
They also created a D-class or red class, which was really a no-go zone where the federal government did not want to provide government-backed mortgages.
5:39
These redlined areas were where Black families lived.
5:43
It made it very difficult for residents living in these areas, predominantly Black residents, to access mortgages.
5:50
Many of these maps exist for communities all across the United States.
5:55
These maps were not made public until 1978 when a historian stumbled upon them.
5:59
If you look at the neighborhoods that were historically redlined, these are still some of the most racially segregated neighborhoods across the United States, and those effects are still felt today.
6:08
Many of the historically redlined neighborhoods have experienced disinvestment, and more recently, many of them have become targets for gentrification, displacing many of these residents as well.
6:25
At Don T says, "Is gentrification all bad?"
6:22
Pretty much.
6:25
There's something called direct displacement.
6:26
People are directly displaced from their homes because they can no longer afford the higher rents.
6:32
Something else happens as well, that's called indirect displacement.
6:34
The shops are different, the community members are different, and so this is kind of making you feel uncomfortable in your own neighborhood.
6:42
Both of these things are bad.
6:45
I think a lot of people think about gentrification associated with these kind of design choices that hipsters make, so you think of the Helvetica house numbers or sometimes the gentrification fences around homes.
6:55
Really, these are kind of an effect of gentrification, they're not causing gentrification.
7:01
Gentrification is really caused by institutional investment in lower-income neighborhoods.
7:07
Investors are coming in and recognizing what's called a rent gap, the gap between the current rents that are charged in a low-income area and the potential to charge higher rents.
7:07
These neighborhoods might be really centrally located, might be near transit, and so investors see an opportunity to buy up and improve buildings and then take advantage of that gap by charging higher rent.
7:07
At Burns2Regina says, "I'm confused as to how exactly are Airbnbs affecting the housing market?"
7:34
A lot of rentals that would have been provided for permanent residents have transitioned to Airbnb housing, which means it reduces the amount of total rentals available on the market and drives prices up.
7:45
For example, we can look to London.
7:47
It is the city with the largest number of Airbnbs in the entire world.
7:52
50,000 Airbnb units were previously long-term rental units in London.
7:58
That means that 50,000 rental apartments were taken off the market and are no longer available to permanent residents.
8:04
Also, some research has shown that Airbnbs increasing actually contributes to gentrification and raising home prices in certain neighborhoods.
8:12
At Scotty ZS says, "How the did my parents buy a house at 26 years old?"
8:18
Well, I have $22,000 in my bank account.
8:21
I feel your pain, Scotty ZS.
8:23
Really, things are much different for Millennials than they were for Boomers.
8:28
When Boomers were reaching the age to buy a home, around the late '80s, early '90s, if you made about $50,000 a year, the average home at that point was about $121,000.
8:37
So that's really only about a two times increase from your income.
8:42
There is a little bit of a dip here following the 2008 recession, but it increased dramatically since.
8:46
The median home price increased by 43% where the median income only increased by 7%.
8:52
The average right now in the United States is a home price that is about six times the median income.
9:00
If you think about very expensive places like the California coast or New York City, that can be about 11 times the median income.
9:11
At Kevin V Dahlgren asks, "What is the leading cause of homelessness?"
9:11
There are a lot of common misconceptions around people who are unhoused, that perhaps drug use is involved, that there are mental illnesses, and these things do exist, but they are not the drivers of homelessness.
9:23
Recent research from the University of California San Francisco actually found that the leading cause of homelessness is a lack of access to affordable housing.
10:10
It's very easy to lose your home.
10:10
8.5 million Americans right now are at risk of becoming homeless because rents are so high and incomes are so low.
10:10
Any increase in rent or perhaps a medical emergency could be the difference between someone remaining in their home and becoming unhoused.
10:10
At News Menu says, "Why are there so many homeless in Los Angeles?"
10:10
There's a common myth that there are a lot of unhoused people in Los Angeles because they move there from access to the good weather.
10:10
This is really not true.
10:10
Researchers have found that the vast majority of people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles are from California and even from that specific county that they previously had housing in that area and were then priced out of it and became unhoused.
10:18
California, as you can see here, has the most number of unhoused people of any state across the country.
10:22
This number has increased 40% since 2007.
10:25
New York also has a very high number of about 103,000 people.
10:31
There are differences though.
10:33
Most of the unhoused people in California are unsheltered.
10:36
This means they don't have access to temporary shelter facilities.
10:40
In New York, the majority of those people are sheltered.
10:46
That's a result of a policy in New York City called Right to Shelter.
10:48
New York City is the only city in the country that mandates the city to provide a shelter bed to every single person who requests it.
10:56
At Don J says, "Why corporations buying up houses just to rent them?"
11:01
Why should any house be owned by Walmart?
11:04
I don't know about Walmart, but corporations are certainly buying up houses.
11:12
There was a lot of internet speculation about a company called BlackRock, which is a private equity firm, buying up single-family homes and renting them out.
11:16
This isn't really happening.
11:19
However, BlackRock is investing in real estate investment trusts that are investing in apartment building acquisitions and rentals, so BlackRock isn't buying up suburban homes but they are investing in the rental market.
11:23
And so corporations are recognizing real estate as an asset class that they would like to invest in, just like stocks and bonds.
11:38
This is a form of what's called the financialization of housing, and this really means the transition of housing from a social good, from something we need to live, to something that can be bought and sold and traded and where people can make lots of money.
11:55
At Hod Hi Highbar Ali 1 asks, "Why are there so few houses on the market?"
11:55
It takes a very long time for developers to receive approvals to build their projects.
11:59
In Santa Monica, California, the average development takes 48 months to be approved.
12:06
That's 48 months where the developer is waiting for approval before they can begin construction.
12:10
Increasing interest rates are also affecting housing supply, specifically for existing homes.
12:21
If you purchased your home prior to the recent increases in interest rates, you don't want to sell and buy a new home and risk getting a bad interest rate.
12:17
If we look at housing supply prior to the financial crisis was pretty steady, but actually ramped up right before the financial crisis and then jumped off a cliff, just plummeted.
12:34
6 million Americans lost their homes.
12:39
Housing production started up again but at a much slower rate because developers were a bit scared.
12:43
Demand skyrocketed, but there wasn't enough supply to meet it.
12:48
Some cities have seen actually a 50% reduction in housing inventory since the pandemic.
12:53
At Our New Home Coach says, "Serious question: where in the world are they getting housing policy right?"
12:58
I'd love to learn from that.
13:00
One place that's getting it right is Vienna in Austria.
13:04
It's dense, it's lively, it's vibrant, it's a huge hub of culture.
13:06
In Vienna, 60% of people live in public housing.
13:09
That compares to about 1.5% in the US.
13:12
This chart shows the available housing in Vienna.
13:17
As you can see, about 57% is market rate, whereas a huge percentage of the available housing is either public housing, meaning it's owned and managed by the government, by private nonprofit organizations that receive government subsidies to provide this housing.
13:31
So if you're looking at an apartment in Vienna right now, odds are that you would qualify for public housing because in Vienna, public housing is not just for low-income families, it's also for middle-income families.
13:45
In the United States, it is only for low-income or very low-income families.
13:45
At Your Fake Mother says, "What exactly are squatter's rights?"
13:45
So what that means in a place like New York is that if someone lives on a property without a rental agreement for 10 years, takes care of that property, is known by neighbors, is not doing that secretly, they can claim that they have rights to that property, that they are the owner of that property because they have used and maintained it for that length of time.
13:45
Just because you claim squatter's rights doesn't mean that the property becomes yours.
13:45
It's a court-mandated process.
13:45
When you go to court to claim squatter's rights, the original owner can of course come and defend their right to own the property.
13:45
If you are successful, the property is deeded to you.
13:45
If you are unsuccessful, you have to vacate the property.
13:45
At Chippity Doo Dah says, "Is there anywhere affordable to live anymore?"
13:45
Almost no.
13:45
Places like California, New York City, these are places where the home price to income ratio can be around 10 to one.
14:44
It would cost you about 10 times your income to afford the median home price.
14:50
Things get a little bit more affordable if you wander into smaller rural communities.
14:55
Some places in rural Texas as well are a little bit on the more affordable scale, but even these are becoming more and more unaffordable because the housing supply is dwindling in these areas because of a lack of development interest.
15:09
For example, in a place like Buffalo, which is usually pretty affordable, housing is becoming a scarcity because there isn't enough development, meaning that it's becoming more and more expensive.
15:19
At Thor says, "Should I buy a house on Amazon?"
15:22
Let me know guys, feeling impulsive.
15:24
I would say that's not a good idea.
15:26
The Amazon listing of houses is really part of this broader trend of tiny homes.
15:30
These are very small homes that can be built on very small plots of land with just tiny homes.
15:37
These look like downsized mini versions of suburban development.
15:39
This is exciting, but it's not a huge trend yet.
15:45
Only about 1% of the current active housing market are tiny homes.
15:47
It's not a solution to housing affordability.
15:49
At Rosie Dell says, "What are the policies that would bring down housing prices?"
15:56
What policies would help renters to have enough access to affordable housing?
15:58
So when we're talking about housing prices, we're really talking about increasing supply.
16:03
That is what is going to bring house prices down.
16:06
When you're talking about rentals, there is of course a need for the increased supply of rental housing, but policies can also be introduced.
16:14
The government gives tax incentives to developers based on the promise that those developers will include affordable units within their new developments.
16:23
Rent control and rent stabilization are things that are really helpful in certain contexts.
16:32
So there are about 16,000 rent control apartments in New York City and about a million rent-stabilized apartments.
16:32
Rent control apartments are only those that are built prior to 1947.
16:32
This means that rent prices are set at what's called a base maximum, which means that rent control apartments cannot fluctuate above that maximum rent.
16:32
Rent stabilization means that there are limits to how much the rent can increase year-over-year.
16:54
So those are all the questions we have for today.
16:57
Thanks so much for watching!